Palisade Research’s Adem Tumerkan reports:
The consensus is that the economy’s doing great – and will continue to do well. Everything seems fine – right?
Well, not exactly. I have been looking at some important – but little used – indicators that are showing very troublesome economic data.
Here are three important indicators that will throw ice on the hot economy narrative the mainstream media is pushing…
Right now, the yield curve is dangerously close to flattening – then soon after will invert.
Looking at the 2 n’ 10 Rule – the spread between the 2-year Treasury and the 10-year Bond– we see the spread is at the lowest it’s been since The Great Recession of 2008.
43 basis points. . . That’s it. To put this in perspective, if the Fed hikes just two more times (which is 50 basis points) and the 10-year keeps sticking below 3%, then the yield curve will invert.
This is important because yield curve inversion – when the spread turns negative – has preceded the last seven straight recessions. If we only look at more modern times – say the last 30 years – we can see the spread collapse negative before a recession strikes.
This 2 n’ 10 Rule is still one of the most important indicators we can use to forecast recessions. And it’s saying that the U.S. economy is more fragile than many like to admit.
There is also the cash hoarding problem going on – and that’s a bad signal of economic health.
To summarize, when things are going well in the economy – people spend more money and save less. Because they feel confident they will be able to make that money back.
But when things are uncertain and become difficult – people save their money. They will put off dining out and buying things they wanted and instead keep money in their bank account for a ‘rainy day’.
Read the full article at Palisade Research: Beware: These 3 Important Indicators Are Signaling Economic Problems Ahead | Palisade Research