Last updated: 1/23/2023
What will gold be worth in the next 5 and 10 years? After a decade-long bear market, the price of gold could be beginning to rise. Its recent surge of life has occurred during the pandemic crash of 2020 and experts believe the next 5 and 10 years look bullish for gold. To help you gain a better understanding on the future price of gold, we have created both a five year and 10 year forecast on the price of gold.
In 2020, the price of gold soared to a new record high. Since the pandemic, the price of gold has been steadily climbing. The recent surge in price has many investors wondering where the price of gold can go from here.
Historically gold has been a safe-haven asset that people flock to during times of economic uncertainty and devaluation of the dollar, thus making it plausible for increased demand and price in the next 5 years. While the price of gold will go up and down, there are ways to figure out if gold will go up in price. Here are four factors to consider when forecasting the price of gold for the next 5 years:
What are the gold price predictions for next 5 years?
The price of gold in 5 years can be estimated using factors that we’re seeing in our current economy and on the news.
1 – Inflation
A recent poll by CNBC shows that investors fear inflation the most in 2022. Inflation has been increasing steadily for the past year and there seems to be no end in sight for high inflation as the key drivers behind inflation are all in place — supply chain issues, manufacturing issues, lots of money from the Fed that hasn’t hit the economy yet, rising food prices. In fact, inflation could get even more out of control, and the Fed’s small interest hikes of .50 and .75 basis points dwarf compared to recent 8.6% inflation.
The current US inflation rate is around 8.6%, showing a steady rise this year so far. In the past, high inflation has resulted in a rapidly rising gold price. During the 1970s and up to 1980, inflation was rising rapidly, and the gold price went up over 2,000%. If inflation persists around 8% or if it keeps rising, we could see the price of gold soar. Gold would only need to go up around 50% to reach $3,000 an ounce, and perhaps that means gold will be worth much more in 5 years.
2 – Stock Market Correction
So far this year, we’ve seen the stock market bubble burst and the fallout could continue to be devastating since stocks have never in history been as overvalued as they were, according to the Buffett Indicator. If the stock market continues to see a correction or a crash, it will most likely make gold prices increase.
3 – Global Conflict/War
Global tensions could continue to rise, putting even further strain on a once well-oiled globalized supply chain. These factors would likely continue to push gold upward based on historical data and fundamental movers of precious metal values.
Historically during times of geopolitical tensions and wars, gold has performed well. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, we’ve seen some upside movement in gold. If the conflict persists, which we hope it does not, and especially if it escalates and draws in neighboring NATO countries, it is likely that the demand for defensive assets such as gold will rise quickly. That could make the gold price go up and perhaps reach $3,000 per ounce.
4 – US Public Debt
Our dollar’s status could also be in danger. The US public debt closing in on $30 trillion dollars. This incredible amount is now 150% higher than the current GDP of the US. Record federal deficits and rising inflation erode both the purchasing power of the dollar and the confidence in the greenback globally, which could jeopardize the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency and send our currency tumbling if countries and businesses decide to ditch the dollar for a better alternative.
Gold 5-Year Forecast
Now that you have an idea of what drives the price of gold future predictions, it’s time to see what the experts are saying about the price of gold in 5 years. With inflation raging and the US debt piling up, gold could move from its current price to as high as $3000 in the next 5 years. If the US debt accelerates causing money printing to rise, the price of gold may hit $4000 an ounce. In the event that a massive market crash occurs, the price of gold could soar as high as $5000 per ounce in just 5 years.
According to David Lennox of fund management company Fat Prophets, gold could reach $2,100 per ounce in 2022 and could continue to rise for the next 5 years. In an interview with CNBC, he pointed to rising inflation and said that everything seems to be in place for a dollar decline, which would be a “boon” for gold.
“We do believe that high momentum in inflation and that lower U.S. dollar is going to drive the gold price higher in 2022.”
David Lennox, Fat Prophets
He added that if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalates, the price of gold could rise rapidly as fear for geopolitical turmoil will send investors running to the safe-haven asset.
RBC Capital Markets predicts gold soar in the next 5 years if inflation takes hold and the economy underperforms expectations. This would be “a much more risk-off outlook,” which is an environment where investors reduce risk by selling riskier assets and seeking protection in safe-haven assets.
FX Empire adopts a slightly more bullish view of where gold is headed, saying it could reach $2,280 by the end of this year, based on a technical analysis of the performance of the precious metal.
Goldman Sachs recommends buying gold — which would make the price of gold rise. If all these factors collide, the gold price rally might take off to never-before-seen heights, pushing gold to $2,500 or even $3,000 an ounce in the next 5 years
Forecast of Gold Price for the Next 10 Years
As with any prediction, the farther out you go the more difficult it becomes. Fortunately, by utilizing long-term and historical trends we can piece together possible market cycles and combine them with likely future events. Typically speaking, precious metals bull and bear market cycles last somewhere around 10 to 20 years. With that context, here’s a look at the market cycles of gold for the past 50 years:
1970 to 1980: Bull Market
During the bull market of the 1970s, the price of gold moved up over 1500% and rose from around $30 to over $500 an ounce.
1980 to 2000: Bear Market
During this time, the price of gold mostly stagnated, but ultimately dropped in value to around $300 an ounce.
2000 to 2010: Bull Market
During the bull market of the 2000s. The price of gold moved up from $280 to $1,420. This was a 600% move.
2010 to 2020: Bear Market
During the bear market from 2010 to 2020 the price of gold dropped to around $1250 per ounce but held its average price there for the most part.
2020 to Present: Bull Market
At the start of 2020, the price of gold was around $1,500. Currently, the price of gold is $1,924.76. That’s about 30% move in the last 2 years alone.
Gold Price Forecast for the Next 10 Years
Considering the last two bull markets, the price of gold could surge as high as 1000% in next ten years, which would put the price of gold at an incredible $18,000 per ounce in the 2030s. In addition to market cycles, here are some other factors to consider when looking at the price of gold in the next 10 years:
There’s also the risk of another pandemic sweeping the world, which could force the economy to shut down yet again or just continue to disrupt the global economy.
With these concerns in mind, it’s no surprise that the demand for assets that can help mitigate investment risk could soar, and for 5,000 years that is exactly what gold has been doing: serving as a stable store of wealth and mitigating investment risk.
Another word or two about central banks: The total amount of gold held by central banks reached 36,000 tons in 2021 — its highest level since 1990, according to a report by the World Gold Council. The WGC attributes the central banks’ switch to gold to the decline of the dollar caused in large part by the Fed’s massive money printing.
The demand for gold comes from several sources. Many people buy gold to try to protect their purchasing power during uncertain times. But the price of gold could also be affected from other sources. Central banks, for instance, have increased their gold reserves substantially over the past decade, and as fiat currencies weaken, central banks are likely to buy more gold, which could make the gold price per ounce go up within 10 years.
History suggests that central banks are likely seeking out gold because the precious metal, unlike the dollar, is mostly free from counterparty risk, which means it’s significantly less affected by turmoil in the financial markets and the economy than other assets.
Gold is also used in many industrial applications, and as the demand for those products goes up, so does the demand for gold and, likely, gold will rise too.
Several analysts are saying that the US could soon be in another recession. As we saw in the recession following the housing collapse in 2008, the price of gold could very well rise as demand for the defensive precious metal rises. But that’s not the only time a recession was followed by rising gold prices.
As you can see in the chart above, the price of gold per troy ounce often rises during or right after a recession. Note that the price of gold didn’t rise before 1971 because the government had locked in the gold price. So its price wasn’t determined by the markets.
Today’s gold spot price and interactive price history chart
The current gold price is $1,924.76 (-0.13%) per troy ounce, as of the time of this article’s daily update. We also have a live price ticker at the top of every page as well as an interactive price history chart below.
To follow the development in the gold price and see its price history, you can check out our interactive gold price chart below:
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